OK, not strictly true. But we figure that by preparing you for the worst you’ll be…uh, pleasantly surprised when things start to brighten up around the time you retire. In any case, listen not to us, but to what the International Monetary Fund has to say.

Global financial markets are “fragile” and indicators of systemic risk remain “elevated” almost a year into the credit crisis, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

The fund warned credit growth in the US could fall further as a result of ongoing financial system stress and warned that emerging markets would be tested as global financing conditions tighten and policymakers grapple with rising inflation.

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