FRIDAY MAY 16
Time For A New Kind Of ‘Surgical Strike’?

Having done such a bang-up job, both logically and tactically, with its pre-emptive maneuvers in the theater of war (insert guffaw here) the U.S. is now considering applying the same tactic to a variety of other applications: like market bubbles. Feast your eyes on the results of a study Fed Reserve chief Ben Bernanke commissioned from a bunch of Princeton scholars that clearly show how even the smartest money sometimes finds itself powerless to stop the onset of investor mania.

May 2008

First came the tech-stock bubble. Then there were bubbles in housing and credit. Chinese stocks took off like a rocket. Now, as prices soar on every material from oil to corn, some suggest there's a bubble in commodities.

But how and why do bubbles form? Economists traditionally haven't offered much insight. From World War II till the mid-1990s, there weren't many U.S. investing manias for them to look at. The study of bubbles was left to economic historians sifting through musty records of 17th-century Dutch tulip-bulb prices and the like.

The dot-com boom began to change that. "You were seeing live, in action, the unfolding of lots of examples of valuations disconnecting from fundamentals," says Princeton economist Harrison Hong. Now, the study of financial bubbles is hot.

Its hub is Princeton, 40 miles south of Wall Street, home to a band of young scholars hired by former professor Ben Bernanke, now the nation's chief bubble watcher as Federal Reserve chairman. The group includes Mr. Hong, a Vietnam native raised in Silicon Valley; a Chinese wunderkind who started as a physicist; and a German who'd been groomed to take over the family carpentry business. Among their conclusions:

Bubbles emerge at times when investors profoundly disagree about the significance of a big economic development, such as the birth of the Internet. Because it's so much harder to bet on prices going down than up, the bullish investors dominate.

Continue reading on WSJ.com

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May 2008
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