THURSDAY MARCH 06
UBS Fire Sale?

The stock of Europe’s largest bank is taking a pummeling today, falling to a five-year low in Swiss trading on news from squealing rival banks that it may have liquidated up to $24 billion in mortgage-backed securities, may have to take a slew of additional write-downs, might not pay a dividend this year and – with all that – still be compelled to raise more capital. Here, a tally of the likely damage.

March 2008

UBS AG fell to a five-year low in Swiss trading after JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said it probably sold 25 billion francs ($24 billion) of mortgage-backed securities in a ``fire sale'' and may have more writedowns.

Europe's biggest bank by assets fell as much as 4.2 percent to 30.88 francs after analysts including Kian Abouhossein raised their markdown forecast to 18.5 billion francs ($17.9 billion) from 15 billion francs. Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley also forecast wider losses at UBS from a sell-off of so-called Alt-A home loans to borrowers with better than subprime credit.

``It is highly likely that UBS sold its 25 billion-franc face value prime Alt-A portfolio in a fire sale,'' Abouhossein wrote in the note, dated March 5. ``We believe UBS would be willing to aggressively reduce structured credit assets to clean up the book.''

UBS marked down about $19 billion last year, posting the first annual loss since the Zurich-based bank was created in 1998. Valuations of AAA rated securities backed by Alt-A loans, which range between prime and subprime in their likelihood to default, fell as much as 15 percent last month, U.S. lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc. has said.

The Swiss bank traded down 2 percent at 31.60 francs as of 11:44 a.m. The company has declined 55 percent in the past 12 months, giving it a market value of 65.5 billion francs.

UBS spokeswoman Tatjana Domke declined to comment on the analysts' reports.

Merrill analyst Derek de Vries increased his forecast for markdowns at UBS to $21 billion from $13 billion, and Morgan Stanley analysts raised their estimate to as much as $25 billion.

Abouhossein and Morgan Stanley's Huw Van Steenis and Solveig Babinet forecast the company will not pay a dividend this year. Even with no dividend payment, UBS may have to raise capital again if writedowns exceed $16 billion, Merrill's De Vries said.

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